Are The Oilers Rebuilding?

You may have heard the Edmonton Oilers are rebuilding. “It won’t be an overnight fix.” “It’s all part of the process.” “This is a young, fast, exciting team.” These are all true statements that may or may not be distracting us (us, being Oilers fans) from the mess at hand. The local media has bought hook, line, and sinker – I won’t get into the media puppets who defend this franchise, but let’s just say a number of them end up writing articles for edmontonoilers.com (with each article prefaced, “I know this is edmontonoilers.com… but I wouldn’t write this if I didn’t believe it”). With another Oilers season over before the season’s halfway point, the “rebuilding” has become the main topic of discussion online, on radio, and occasionally even in newspapers.

But rebuilding is a tricky thing. It’s the sports equivalent of a political buzzword. The Islanders have been “rebuilding” for about 10 years. A lot of the NHL’s have-nots have been rebuilding for as long as we can remember. And when is a rebuild done? Whenever the team becomes competitive. We make fun of the Isles and their ineptness, but we feel the Oilers are onto something. Eh?

The Oilers only stated goal this year was to be playing competitive, important games in March. They didn’t even make it to January. The (primary) excuse is the same excuse they have used for a number of years – injuries.

The tricky thing is… it’s kind of a fair excuse. Any team that loses its top players for extended periods of time is going to struggle. The Oilers should have expected injuries from Ales Hemsky, Cam Barker, and Ryan Whitney, but the crucial injuries to the Oilers’ three young guns went from strange (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), to unfortunate (Jordan Eberle), to unbelievable (Taylor Hall).

On the flip side, the Oilers lost three extremely young players – surely their veterans would have enough to at least keep the boat afloat? None of these injuries will keep their stars out for more than 10 games – surely someone would step up. They have not. On the defensive end, it’s arguably been even worse.

With another 30^th place within the Oilers sights (and make no mistake, they WILL finish dead last again, and be the first team to do so for three years running since the expansion Ottawa Senators) the debate will rage – are the Oilers rebuilding, and if so, are they doing it the right way? Defenders of the process will point to two franchises above all others – Chicago and Pittsburgh (it used to be Washington, but that example was removed once the Caps stopped dominating). I hear this argument more than any other. “Look at Chicago!” “Look at Pittsburgh!” Rarely, do we hear “look at Florida!” “Look at the Islanders!”

Let’s look at how Chicago and Pittsburgh were “rebuilt.”

Chicago

The Blackhawks franchise decayed (much like the Oilers) due to continuous draft struggles. They managed to draft either depth players or compete busts from 1998-2002 (their first round choices during those years were Mark Bell, Steve McCarthy, Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev, and the best of the bunch, Tuomo Ruutu). Almost as importantly, they managed very little later in the draft outside a few backup goalies who would play elsewhere. While Jonathan Toews (2006, 3^rd overall), and Patrick Kane (2007, 1^st overall) are the picks Oilers rebuild fans will draw attention to, the 2002-2004 draft period laid the foundation for Toews and Kane to succeed. Here’s a list of legitimate NHLers the Hawks’ drafted during that period:

• 2002 – Anton Babchuk (first round)
• 2002 – Duncan Keith (second round)
• 2002 – James Wisniewski (fifth round)
• 2002 – Adam Burish (ninth round)
• 2003 – Brent Seabrook (first round)
• 2003 – Corey Crawford (second round)
• 2003 – Dustin Byfuglien (eighth round)
• 2004 – Cam Barker (first round)
• 2004 – David Bolland (second round)
• 2004 – Bryan Bickell (second round)
• 2004 – Troy Brouwer (seventh round)

Yes, not all of these guys have had NHL success with the Blackhawks, but that’s an incredible period of drafting.

Of course, Chicago also added an undrafted goalie (Antti Niemi), traded Ruutu for Andrew Ladd, completely stole Kris Versteeg and Patrick Sharp through trade, and signed Marian Hossa.

The Hawks drafting was so good that they managed to overcome a few shaky contracts (Cristobal Huet, Brian Campbell) along the way.

But my point is the Hawks did not become “good” simply by sucking and drafting high. During their incredible drafting from 2002-04, only one of those picks was in the top 14 – and it was Cam Barker (we all know how that worked out). Barker was traded for prospects before the Hawks reached the Stanley Cup. Outside drafting very good players for two years in a row, there is no reasonable Oilers/’Hawks comparison to be made.

Pittsburgh

The Penguins are the best comparison to the Oilers – a truly wretched franchise that benefited from the NHL’s “fail and be rewarded policy.” The Penguins weren’t quite as bad as Edmonton, but their results were pretty miserable.

• 2002-03: 29^th place (resulting pick Marc-Andre Fleury)
• 2003-04: 30^th place (resulting pick: Evgeni Malkin; followed by the lockout, where the draft lottery was based on teams’ results in the past three years, benefiting the Penguins more than any other team – they finished 26^th in 2001-02 … as a result, they selected Sidney Crosby).
• 2005-06: 29^th place (resulting pick: Jordan Staal).

So, yes, the Penguins did rebuild through high draft picks, just like the Oilers appear to be doing. But a number of incredible things happened in the Penguins favour:

• They drafted first, second, first, and second at pretty well the best possible time. Evgeni Malkin has potential to be the best second overall pick in history; Crosby is a transcendent, once-in-a-generation talent who quickly became the unquestioned best player in the league; they drafted a goalie extremely high, which hasn’t worked out for many teams.
• The lockout ensured Malkin wouldn’t drag the Penguins out of the league’s basement, which he certainly has potential to do. He spent another year in Russia after that, which indirectly helped the Penguins get Staal as well.
• The lockout drafting rules were designed for the Penguins. No team was that bad over the last three years. I’m not suggesting conspiracy, but if the Penguins were going to design the drafting rules, that’s what they would have come up with.

For the Oilers to follow the Penguins template, there needs to be another lockout, a truly excellent crop of players coming up a few years apart, and a number of other factors nicely falling into place. The Penguins rely on their stars, but they have proven that their star-free, cheap supporting cast can keep the team afloat while their stars are out. Last year’s Penguins made the playoffs as a No. 4 seed despite the injury to Staal, the Crosby concussion, and Malkin’s torn ACL. Those who believe the Oilers are following the Pens template are making a number of massive assumptions:

• Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, and the 2013 No. 1 pick will be comparable to Malkin, Crosby and Staal. For this “rebuild” to work, as is, they probably need to be even better.
• Let’s not forget, Patrik Stefan, Rick DiPietro, Erik Johnson, Chris Phillips and Bryan Berard were also first overall picks in the past 16 years.
• The Oilers supporting cast in a few years needs to move from worst in the league to reasonable.
• Goaltending no longer needs to be elite, but it needs to be above average.
• We’ve seen Dan Bylsma in action. He seems to be one of the brightest minds in the NHL. The Oilers will need a top-notch coach to develop these players.
• These Oilers stars need to stay healthy.
• The Oilers will need an elite puck-moving defencemen, and usually a couple who are well above-average.

So, yes, it helps to draft high. And even if we assume the Oilers top picks are all spectacular, to follow the Pens “model,” they need an elite coach, a capable defence, a supporting cast, and health. What team in the NHL wouldn’t contend with these things?

So, Scott, how would you fix this?

I am asked this a lot when I state I don’t buy into the Oilers rebuild. I don’t think it’s a fair question – fans are consumers, and we demand/expect the product we watch to be respectable. We don’t know the interal struggles in Oilerland, or if a player is playing hurt, a locker-room cancer, etc. The Oilers overall needs are obvious (draft better, trade better, sign better players, change the environment, protect your assets, patience to get out from under some crippling contracts)… but how do they do that? Well, that’s Steve Tambellini, Kevin Lowe and Tom Renney’s job to figure that out.

The Oilers do succeed in one thing – public relations – and they have convinced the media, a large portion of the fan base, and even some national pundits that they have a master plan – this rebuild is going somewhere. They hang their hats on young talents like Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins… and who can blame them? The question is if you believe that drafting obvious picks first overall is a rebuild – and if those (obvious) picks mask the Oilers complete failure in every other regard. For me, it doesn’t mask it, and a complete change of leadership is, once again, needed.

Oilers: Mid-season grades

I’ve been absent lately, much like the Oilers. And maybe it’s for the best. Our beloved hometown team, which won eight of their first 12 games, has now won eight of their last 28. And while I haven’t been writing, I have been watching more than I care to admit. Unfortunately, the season is over at the mid-way point again, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have some fun looking at every player. I will skip players who have just had a cup of coffee (albeit, even if it’s a bitter cup of coffee, like Josh Green) and comment on the regulars.

Taylor Hall, B+. If Hall’s brief NHL career has taught us anything, it’s that he could/should/is(?) the first-liner the Oilers were hoping for when they drafted him, but he’s a bit of a streaky scorer. He’s been lost in the headlines as his linemates have both one-upped him, but over 82 games (if he had been healthy) he’d be on pace for about 35 goals and over 70 points.

Ladislav Smid, A-. I (still) like Ladislav Smid. He has no teeth, he’s suffered a considerable amount of head trauma, and I always feel like he would have been better off if a veteran defenceman took him under his wing and guided him, but Smid has adapted and done his best. Unlike so many Oilers, Smid seems to take exception when a teammate is bludgeoned on the ice, and his play has sharply improved last year. He’s grown into a respectable 3-4 pairing defenceman, who has done a pretty reasonable job thrust into a 1-2 spot.

Ryan Whitney, D. This comes with a big asterisk, as we know he hasn’t been healthy. But, for all we know, a lot of players aren’t healthy. Hopefully he recovers and then it’d be more fair to judge him.

Shawn Horcoff, D. Let’s forget his contract, forget his self-aggrandizing quotes, and everything else we know about Horc. This year, he gets first unit power play time, plays over 20 minutes a game, and is crucial to the Oilers success. He has good linemates, and has been the beneficiary of one of the best power play units in the league.

As a result, Horcoff is on pace for 44 points and has the worst +/- on the team. He is below 50% in the face-off circle (a stat Horcoff defenders have used for years), has lost a step, and has no physical presence whatsoever. Since Horcoff makes $5.5 million/season – which, of course, is no fault of his own – fans consider him a reliable second line centre, or at least try to convince themselves. He’s also the captain of a team that is regularly pushed around and often looks overwhelmed. Realistically, he’s a mediocre third line centre who is on the downturn of his career – and nothing he’s done in the past four seasons suggests anything different.

Jordan Eberle, A+. Jordan Eberle is the Oilers most complete player, and will likely be their leading scorer for both seasons he’s been in the NHL. For a 21-year-old, he has an awfully well-rounded game, and has taken over for Ales Hemsky when it comes to highlight-worthy plays. Eberle, right now, is the Oilers best player, and impressively has matched his point total from last year (he’s also seventh in league scoring!). For reasons beyond me, he only plays 17 minutes per game.

Eric Belanger, F. Like most Oilers fans, I loved the Belanger signing. It made perfect sense – he could be that third line checking centre that the Oilers have long needed, and add a little stability to a team that has gone through long swoons in recent seasons.

And the signing may still be okay. But Belanger hasn’t been a rock defensively, has added virtually nothing offensively (one goal, and it was of the debatable variety), and his offensive production has halved. You can’t blame opportunity – he’s been getting power play time as well. Mysteriously, players come to Edmonton and often lose their ability to replicate previous success. I’ll let you drawn your own conclusions as to why that is.

The most baffling thing about Belanger’s struggle is how consistent he’s been for 10 years. Almost without fail, he would have scored 40-45 points over 82 games. This year, he’s on pace for two goals and 20 points.

Theodore Peckham, D-. Generally, I will defend Theo, because he’s entertaining and adds a violent element desperately missing from Oilers games. But he costs them an awful lot of goals – both when he’s on the ice, and when he’s taken an idiotic penalty. Theo does not belong in the NHL. With that said, now that the playoffs are a pipe dream, let’s keep Theo on the team.

Andy Sutton, C-. I know a lot of people who think Andy Sutton is a decent hockey player. Even if we ignore his two (excessive) suspensions, Sutton still looks like the guy who had a hard time cracking the Anaheim Ducks’ defence last year. To call him slow would be generous, but at least he resembles an NHL defenceman.

Ryan Jones, B+. I thought Jones would struggle to score 10 goals this year, and may have written that. I was very wrong. While so many Oilers are underperforming or overwhelmed, full credit to the creatively nicknamed Jonesy, who does a lot with little.

On the flip side, I can’t imagine Jones playing 15-16 minutes a night for a playoff-calibre team.

Fun fact: In his career, Jones has 45 goals and 29 assists.

Colton Teubert, B. To all those people who killed the Oilers for trading Dustin Penner… consider that Teubert for Penner straight-up is probably a fair deal right now.

Nikolai Khabibulin, B+. Like so many Oilers, an exceptional start that has faded into a mediocre middle. But Khabibulin has been a legitimate No. 1 goaltender, and has a sparkling 2.33 GAA and a .922 save percentage. I’m not sure how he turned it around in one year, but it’s a relief considering the play of his backup.

Lennart Petrell, B-. I don’t mind Petrell, as the Oilers fourth line has generally been respectable this year. Like fourth line players should, Petrell doesn’t mind throwing the body around.

Devan Dubnyk, F. This was Dubnyk’s chance, wasn’t it? He’s backing up an injury-prone goalie coming off a jaw-droppingly bad season. He could have won the job, or at least made the Oilers think about handing him the reigns. He was drafted seven years ago, so the time to make a jump is now, right? No.

Instead, Khabibulin has become the clear No. 1, and Dubnyk represents a notable drop-off. He’s killed the Oilers fairly regularly, and is a really borderline NHLer. I know the rating is harsh, but he’s fallen miles below expectations.

Corey Potter, B. Corey Potter at the start the year was an A+, the biggest surprise of the season and a player who made you ask “how was this guy not in the NHL?” Since his injury, he’s become what you expect out of a career minor-leaguer.

Benjamin Eager, C. Benjamin does some stupid things, but he’s getting better. He had a single point in his first 16 games, and has four goals and an assist in his last 13. He doesn’t play enough, and I think missing training camp hurt his already suspect conditioning, but he’s coming around. Everytime he gets a shift with a good player or two, good things tend to happen.

Anton Lander, C+. A rookie, playing limited minutes in a role that doesn’t quite suit him is hard to judge. Lander’s been okay; nothing more, nothing less.

Jeff Petry, C-. No player better represents the Oilers better than Jeff Petry. He clearly has some talent, and he struggles to show it. He is soft, and prone to blunders. He’s a classic “upside” guy, which horrifies me. He’s -10 in his past six games, and doesn’t appear to do any one thing particularly well. And, like a few Oilers, he should probably be in the minors but is with the big club because they simply don’t have anyone better.

Tom Gilbert, B. Gilbert has been a lot – a LOT – better than last year. He seems to have made a conscious effort to add to his game (the coaches told him he has to be more physical, and while he is not a bruiser, at least he appears to be trying; and he learned how to take a slap shot in the off-season). In Gilbert’s defence, he should be playing 20 minutes a night on the second pairing, not 25 minutes a night on the first pairing.

Ales Hemsky, D. No arguments here, Ales Hemsky has been poor. At times, very poor. At times, not nearly as poor as people claim he’s been. With this acknowledged, let me argue in defence of Ales Hemsky.

Hemsky has been through a lot here. Up until the recent slew of high draft picks, he has been the Oilers only first-line player, yet was never treated as one. Hemsky took continual punishment, often suffering the consequences while his crappy, passionless teammates looked on. Nevertheless, he kept trying, providing Shawn Horcoff the opportunity to squander chance after chance. We always wondered what would happen if Hemsky had a legitimate player to play alongside.

Now that there are legitimate players, Hemsky plays with… Horcoff. His body looks legitimately broken. By NHL standards he is underpaid, yet even while the guy he made offensively (Horcoff) is paid considerably more than him, he hasn’t asked for more or to be traded. Yet, the media craps on him and the blogs crap on him, because he’s having his first season in seven seasons where he’s not near a point a game.

So, yes, Hemsky’s been bad. But I can’t really blame him, and I hope he does well in Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / New York, or wherever he’ll end up this year. I enjoyed this blog post, which is a much more in-depth defence of Ales. It makes a couple of jumps I don’t agree with, but generally is spot on.

Sam Gagner, C. Gagner will no doubt put up another 40-something point season, get a real push from the Oilers coaching staff, and make you wonder if he’ll ever take a step. Frankly, I don’t know. He IS only 22, but he’s been virtually the same player for five years.

Magnus Paajarvi, F. Yes, he’s young. But grading on this year’s performance, he was flat-out awful.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, A. His incredible start was drying up just before he was injured (he had three points in his last nine games), but for a player who many seriously thought belonged in junior, he’s been tremendous. When he fills out, it’ll be exciting to see how high the ceiling is.

Ryan Smyth, A-. Like RNH, he was unable to maintain his breakneck pace… but what else could the Oilers have asked for? He has a real chance to score 30 goals (last time he did that? As an Oiler.), and has given Edmonton another top six forward they desperately needed. Way beyond expectations.